🔗 Share this article From Grudging Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader. A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern indefinitely. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.” These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. Allies in Decline For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis able to challenge Washington. However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”
A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern indefinitely. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.” These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. Allies in Decline For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis able to challenge Washington. However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”