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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and capture its head of state – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. The international community may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.